Mental Models
Systems & Second Order
Tracing incentives, feedback, and the effects that show up later, not just the ones that show up first. These models are about seeing the whole chain of consequences, not just the first link.
Second-Order Thinking
Ask not just what happens next, but what happens after that.
Inversion
Approach a hard problem backward: instead of asking how to succeed, ask precisely how you would fail.
Incentives
People and institutions respond to the reward they are actually given, not the one they claim to be pursuing.